Posted on July 31st, 2008 at 5:36 am by Dean Popplewell
The ‘three amigos’ (Bush, Bernanke and Paulson) continue to try and shore up confidence in the US capital market system. This is to be done by helping distressed homeowners and extending liquidity to financial institutions. An optimistic investor will embrace this, but, the jaded wealth depleted consumer may just need a job by day’s end!
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range ahead of the US GDP data this morning.
Yesterday, ADP unexpectedly added an estimated +9k jobs this month. The increase fol... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 30th, 2008 at 5:41 am by Dean Popplewell
The big dollar has roared back with a vengeance despite ML's impending fire sale of its mortgage bonds, which has convinced some analysts of the ‘endgame’ for CDO risk at financial companies. The strong correlation of commodities and the greenback remain intact, longer term technical support levels are under threat. Will the remaining data this week end this bullish run?
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range ahead of the ADP employment data.
No surprises yesterday as the Case-Shiller 20-metropolit... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 29th, 2008 at 5:30 am by Dean Popplewell
Lack of optimism dominates all asset classes. Consumer confidence is dwindling and risk aversion strategies are starting to dominate as capital markets resume their bearish sentiment. Will US employment numbers this week provide further instability? Traders wish they could partake in the ‘ostrich syndrome escapades’, but, it’s very difficult to find isolated sanctuary at the moment.
The USD$ is little changed in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range.
With most of the FX market participants twiddling their thumbs as f... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 28th, 2008 at 5:41 am by Dean Popplewell
The summer ranges have commenced as the market waits for this weeks NFP on Friday. This number has the potential to exceed all expectations and reverse some of the USD$ bullish sentiment of late.
The USD$ is little changed in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 9 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range.
On Friday, US durable orders surprised the market and advanced. Despite higher borrowing costs, increased uncertainty and weak consumer demand, business investment rose +1.4% last month. This pushed durable goods orders up +0.8% vs. expectations of a -0.3% decline. Even more impressive was ex-transportation, printing + 2.0% m/m vs. a decline of -0.2% on the back of a decline in a...
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Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 25th, 2008 at 5:44 am by Dean Popplewell
FX markets remain poised on a knife edge while investors digest falling German business confidence, retreating US house data and spiraling commodity prices. All week investors have been swayed by hawkish USD$ policy rhetoric. But, the main fear of financials being adequately capitalized for future losses continues to trump most concerns. The USD$ strength may be soon compromised yet again.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 12 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range ahead of this morning US new home data and consumer sentiment numbers.
Yeste... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 24th, 2008 at 10:06 am by Scott Boyd
It is unlikely that an increase to the Federal Funds Rate will be announced at the next FOMC meeting on August 5th, but if the Fed decides to hold the line at 2% as expected, this will mark two sessions in a row where the rate was left unchanged. After seven straight reductions – including an unscheduled rate cut – two consecutive holds may signal that we have reached the end of the line with respect to rate cuts. Indeed, recent comments from influential FOMC voting members is seen by some as evidence that a shift in interest rate policy is already in the works.
... Read more »
Filed under: FXCommentary
Posted on July 24th, 2008 at 5:56 am by Dean Popplewell
Currently the ‘trend’ remains the trader’s friend as the USD$ bulls take a firm grip on the FX markets. Trading within its defined range, achieved over the past 3-months, fundamental variables (commodities, hawkish interest rate talk etc) are beginning to break down technical support levels. But, is it sustainable?
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘volatile’ trading range ahead of this morning US existing home numbers.
Yesterday the only data of note was the Beige book, released in the late afternoon. Really no... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 23rd, 2008 at 6:21 am by Dean Popplewell
Temporary relief seems to have arrived for USD$ bulls, but market psychology continues to seek positives. They have been in short supply as weaker financial reporting coupled with slashing of dividends (Wachovia) could be the norm going forward for both Tier 1 and 11, as they shore up their capital base. Job and cost paring headlines are expected to undermine consumer confidence even further. Enter Plosser and Paulson, the tag team who profess a stronger dollar policy.
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘volatile’ trading range.
... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 22nd, 2008 at 6:02 am by Dean Popplewell
Investors were relieved that BoA was able to add to the recent list of Tier 1 financials that beat the street revenue estimates yesterday. It goes a long way in restoring capital market confidence and may encourage further the liquidation of risk aversion trades. Expect Amex and Apple not to have done any favors this morning.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘very subdued’ trading range.
No surprises from yesterdays US leading indicators index. As anticipated it declined for a second straight month (-0.1% vs. -0.1%), emp... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 21st, 2008 at 5:39 am by Dean Popplewell
Capital markets recovered some of their luster last week as investors found positives from both the housing and financial debacles. The greenback has remained stable as stern realistic rhetoric by both US Treasury Sec. Paulson and Fed Chair Bernanke has given the street something to hold on to.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range.
On Friday, with no US economic data to feed on, investors chewed on Citibank’s financials. The institution reported fewer losses than analysts had estimated and gave th... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Dean's FX
