Posted on July 18th, 2008 at 5:42 am by Dean Popplewell
Capital markets took a well deserved breather in respect to volatility yesterday after Bernanke’s comments this week sent all asset classes into a tail spin. Cbanks are currently trying to appease investor concerns as they navigate through the minefield of housing and financial debacle that’s taken a firm grip on the global economy. Merrill Lynch and Citigroup earnings will once again upset the apple cart this morning and bring investors back to reality.
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 9 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘very subdued’ trading range.
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Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 17th, 2008 at 5:56 am by Dean Popplewell
Capital markets caught a break and paused from its global meltdown scenario yesterday. With elevated commodity prices softening, it provided the temporary spark and reprieve for the greenback and equity prices. But, Bernanke and co. perched on a ‘white picket fence’ will eventually realize that they cannot be savior to all US ills in the short term.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range ahead of this morning US housing starts.
Yesterday, US data showed that CPI spiked on the headline, +1.1% m/m (+... Read more »
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Posted on July 16th, 2008 at 5:36 am by Dean Popplewell
Bernanke and Co. believe they have the tourniquet, but they cannot stop the bleeding. A ‘Sea of red’ prevails across most asset classes as investors are panicking, with good reasons of course. Once the lemmings begin their journey, it is difficult to dissuade a mob mentality in the short term.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range as the USD$ liquidation crisis continues.
The US consumer is still breathing, but only just. US retail sales advanced less than expected yesterday (+0.1% vs. +0.8% m/m). R... Read more »
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Posted on July 15th, 2008 at 5:54 am by Dean Popplewell
‘There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen’. Despite assurances by policy makers, who signaled that a government takeover of the GSE’s would not be necessary (led to the successful sale of Freddie’s discounted bills yesterday) fear of the unknown runs rampant and is affecting all asset classes.
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘wild’ trading range as the USD$ liquidation crisis continues allowing the EUR to print record highs.
US equities remain weak on the back of financial shares after the government's ... Read more »
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Posted on July 15th, 2008 at 5:08 am by Scott Boyd
When I was young, I used to spend a couple of weeks every summer at my Grandparent’s farm. In one of the buildings I remember a small sign that read simply, “Loose Lips, Sink Ships” and I was always confused as to its meaning until my grandfather – a World War II vet – explained that it was a warning to always be mindful of what you say in public. As I grew older of course, I understood the war-time significance of the sign, but saying too much in public can still result in a sinking – just ask Senator Charles Schumer.
By now of course, everyone is aware of the Indymac Bank failure and the controversial comments made by Schumer regarding the bank’s solvency. On June 27th, Schumer’s office made public the deta... Read more »
Filed under: FXCommentary
Posted on July 14th, 2008 at 5:46 am by Dean Popplewell
Perception has a strong influence, it was capable in driving the USD$ to within a cent of all time lows vs. the EUR, grease plummeting FI prices and reddening equity indices last week. The market had perceived that the Fed would need to step in and oversee the operations of both Freddie and Fannie (still not a foregone conclusion).
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range, due to the fall out and perception of Freddie and Fannie.
US Treasury Secretary Paulson signaled that a government takeover of the ... Read more »
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Posted on July 11th, 2008 at 5:26 am by Dean Popplewell
US hawks continue to speak aloud, after Hoenig and Stern earlier in the week we had Janet Yellen focusing on inflation O/N. All policy makers agree somewhat that the US economy is likely to maintain slow growth the rest of this year and pick up next. Yellen commented on recent data which ‘suggest that her biggest fears on the downside have, so far, been avoided’. ‘The risks to inflation are likely not symmetric and they have definitely increased’ she said. ‘Policymakers cannot and will not allow a wage price spiral to develop’.
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘subdued’ trading range ahead of an expected widening of the US Tr... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on July 10th, 2008 at 5:58 am by Dean Popplewell
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range, just ahead of Bernanke’s testimony this morning on widening credit-market losses.
Yesterday, with no data in the US to chew on, traders kept growth issues front and center in respect to their trading strategies. Elevated energy costs, due in part to weekly stock levels, had the greenback trading once again under pressure vs. the EUR. The market continues to digest Bernanke extending the Fed’s emergency loan program for investment banks into next year (P...
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Posted on July 9th, 2008 at 6:00 am by Dean Popplewell
The USD$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘tight’ trading range, despite Iran test firing 9 long and medium range ground-to-ground missiles which led to a USD$ selloff, causing equities to drift lower, oil and gold to be better bid.
Yesterday, Bernanke the ‘slick salesman’ massaged capital markets fears somewhat, by potentially extending ‘a greased palmed hand’ to alleviate the fears of global investors as financial shares tumbled to new lows this week. He indicated that the Fed ‘may’ extend its emergency loan program ...
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Posted on July 8th, 2008 at 5:57 am by Dean Popplewell
The USD$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a ‘whippy’ trading range as fear rules greed.
With no US data to provide guidance yesterday, investors took their lead from global equities. Commodity prices eased as geo-political tensions subsided at first providing a ‘positive’ for the DOW. But, heightened Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae issues (banks were unloading more mortgage bonds) initiated further off-loading of US financial stocks and a negative impact on the greenback. Analysts are predicting that they will need to raise another $75b...
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Dean's FX
