Posted on August 22nd, 2008 at 5:38 am by Dean Popplewell
Now that Russia has ended its military cooperation with NATO as tensions worsen over Georgia and the US missile shield plan for Poland, what will Capital markets want to do? Their initial reaction has been to push the CRB index towards its largest weekly gain in 3-decades. The ‘big dollar’ has retraced nicely from its monthly highs, but, with Euro-lands dependence on Russian energy exports they cannot afford to drag out this ‘spat’, their economies are already in trouble. Bring back the financial write down concerns; they are much easier to interpret!
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range.
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Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on August 21st, 2008 at 5:33 am by Dean Popplewell
Excluding the distraction of the Olympics and lack of currency volatility this week, Capital Markets seems to be preparing for something out of the ordinary. Despite certain foreign politicians flexing their muscles, maybe US domestic issues will be ‘trumped or triumphed’ by an international incident.
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range.
Yesterday, with little US data to influence currency movement, capital markets relied on speculation and rumor of financial failures for guidance. Treasury... Read more »
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Posted on August 20th, 2008 at 5:29 am by Dean Popplewell
Our worst fears of Tier 1 financial failures coming to fruition remains front and center in the Capital Markets, even outpacing global concerns of ‘another cold war’ happening. The greenback had lost some of its technical luster yesterday. Is the market giving us another opportunity to own it again?
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in ‘whippy’ trading range.
Yesterday, US PPI jumped more than expected last month, up +1.2% vs. consensus expectations of a +0.6% advance. Core-PPI, (ex food and energy) rose by +0.7% vs. ... Read more »
Filed under: Dean's FX
Posted on August 19th, 2008 at 3:11 pm by Scott Boyd
As we reach the mid-point of the 2008 Summer Olympics, it seems appropriate to review what hosting the Olympics has meant to China and what could be in store once the tourists leave and the athletes go home. Sure, there will be some snazzy, state-of-the-art venues left for the people of Beijing to enjoy for years to come, but they may first have to deal with the infamous post-Olympic Jinx.
Cities that have sponsored the Games face more than just a psychological and emotional letdown after the excitement around the Olympics subsides. After several years of single-minded purpose where the city – if not the entire country – seems to be geared towards outdoing the previous hosts, switching back to a “normal” life may se... Read more »
Filed under: FXCommentary
Posted on August 19th, 2008 at 5:47 am by Dean Popplewell
The current geo-political and global economic woes must be a ‘pessimist’s utopia’. Traders are finding it difficult to navigate through these turbulent times. Record trading ranges and volatile swings over the last 2-weeks had investors paring profitable positions ahead of today’s US data.
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in ‘subdued’ trading range.
The market waits for this morning’s US housing data, where traders will take their cue. It’s widely anticipated to be weaker, but, how much weaker? Bernanke has hi... Read more »
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Posted on August 18th, 2008 at 5:30 am by Dean Popplewell
Despite the US$ reigning supreme of late, heightened geo-political concerns from Russia has temporarily diverted Heads of State’s attention from their domestic problems. Over the w/d the western world reprimanded Russia. The rest of us wait for a potential fallout from the now strained EU-Russian relationship. Will this add further strength for the ‘greenback’?
The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in ‘subdued’ trading range.
Friday’s session revealed no surprises. The US$ like Michael Phelps remains’ dominant and the ... Read more »
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Posted on August 15th, 2008 at 6:08 am by Dean Popplewell
Analysts and dealers are starting to sing to a different tune. Some dealers are now convinced that the US$ has seen the bottom, as the ‘contagion’ spreads to other global economies. This is a bold predicament with a US housing debacle and credit crisis ongoing. Despite slower growth and an ailing job market, it seems that traders want us to believe that they have priced in the worst. Is this premature?
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range despite part of Europe on holiday (Assumption day).
... Read more »
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Posted on August 14th, 2008 at 6:27 am by Dean Popplewell
US equities continue to take it on the chin, led once again by the financial sector. Certain financial institutions believe the 'contagion' from the sub-prime fall out is a long way from be over. So far we have seen only one variable from the problem equation giving the US economy relief and that’s been commodity prices. Perhaps we will be able to see how much relief in this mornings US CPI number.
The US$ is mixed in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 9 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range ahead of this morning’s inflation report.
Yesterday’s US ... Read more »
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Posted on August 13th, 2008 at 5:38 am by Alfonso Esparza
The US$ cooled after 5 straight positive sessions caused by fears that the gains would not be sustainable on the long run. The US$ gains seems to reflect the growing concern regarding poor worldwide economic growth rather than confidence in the performance of the US. This comes after UBS reported another 6B writedown, which so far have grown to $500Billion for the Financial Industry. The Fed’s Fisher has changed his usually hawkish rhetoric to diagnose the US Economy with anemia, and he expects the US Economy to “broach zero growth in the second half 2008”. The US$ did receive a shot of oxygen after the Trade numbers showed a less than expected deficit after a 4% gain in exports.
The US$ is mixed in the O/N trading session. Curr... Read more »
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Posted on August 12th, 2008 at 5:40 am by Dean Popplewell
With world leaders enjoying their brief hiatus at the Beijing Olympics, the USD$ continues to dominate world currency markets. With a vengeance the currency has solidified its resurgence against all its major trading partners. Currently US$ bulls remain in control and any pull back provide investors the opportunity to enter or add to their US$ longs.
The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Currently it is higher against 14 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in another ‘whippy’ trading range.
Cbanks messages were generally perceived as somewhat ‘dovish’ last week, allowing bond market to post ... Read more »
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