Weekend discussions between Greece and its private lenders did not result in agreement as many had anticipated. At the same time, it has not been able to derail global equities entirely. It seems that investors have shunned the safety of US treasuries for a fourth straight session on hopes that a Ã¢â‚¬ËœHail MaryÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ deal by the Greek government is imminent.
With the beginning of the Chinese New Year holiday affecting market liquidity, some market moves have been slightly overextended. The US yield curve has steepened +3bps with 2/30Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s moving out to +289bps, as longer dated securities lead the fall. Prices have also been pushed lower temporarily by German comments on the possibility of running the ESM and EFSF programs parallel. US 10Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s are now trading on top of its first resistance point of +2.06%. The 10/30Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s spread traded at +189bps, the widest point in six-weeks.
In this morningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s session, treasuries temporarily found a bid ahead of this weekÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s FOMC meet starting tomorrow and concluding on Wednesday. Policy makers are to introduce Ã¢â‚¬Å“major transparencyÃ¢â‚¬Â as an innovation process with individual FOMC members providing projections of the Fed Funds rates and each to explain the quantitative factors behind the projections.
Also putting pressure on prices will be the US treasury department coming to market this week to sell a total of +$99b in notes (2Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s, 5Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s and 7Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s). First up will be tomorrows +$35b two-years, another +$35b of five-years are set for Wednesday, and finally, +$29b seven-year notes will take place on Thursday. Dealers expect this weeks issueÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s to receive Ã¢â‚¬ËœextraÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ concession, as China, a non-starter, will be celebrating New Year and providing little support. Now its back to ticker watching ahead of a Euro press conference scheduled for 20:30 GMT.
Are EUR Bears Losing the Fight?