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Despite “Signs of Improvement” Bernanke Holds Near-Zero Rate Pledge

Speaking before the House Budget Committee in Washington today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the U.S. economy appeared to be gaining in strength.

“Fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job-market activity have shown some signs of improvement,” Bernanke testified. “The outlook remains uncertain, however, and close monitoring of economic developments will remain necessary.”

Despite the more positive tone, Bernanke reaffirmed a continuance of the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy. Last month, the Fed extended its pledge to hold the line on interest rates for an additional year, stating that rates would likely remain at the record low cap of 0.25 percent until late 2014.

To offset fears that low lending rates could lead to inflation, Bernanke told the Committee that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still considered 2 percent growth to be the ideal target. Given the current conditions, the FOMC expects inflation to remain “subdued”.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in January

Bernanke’s testimony comes less than a week after the release of the January Consumer Confidence Index. The January result was a sharp decline in confidence, falling to 61.1 percent from 64.8 percent after two consecutive months of significant gains. The downturn in the index suggests consumers are increasingly worried that rising costs will take a greater bite out of household budgets.

There is hope that confidence will rise should the employment outlook continue to improve. For the final quarter of 2011, unemployment fell by half a percent to 8.5 percent and momentum appears to be gathering steam with claims for unemployment benefits falling more than expected for the week ending January 21st.

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May
23
Today’s Global
Market Events
1:00am

JPY
BOJ Monthly Report
3:00am

EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)44.8 (P)44.4
EUR
French Flash Services PMI
(F)44.7 (P)44.3
3:30am

EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)48.6 (P)48.1
EUR
German Flash Services PMI
(F)50.2 (P)49.6
4:00am

EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)47.1 (P)46.7
EUR
Flash Services PMI
(F)47.4 (P)47
EUR
Italian Retail Sales m/m
(F)0.3% (P)-0.2%
4:30am

GBP
Second Estimate GDP q/q
(F)0.3% (P)0.3%
GBP
Prelim Business Investment q/q
(F)1.7% (P)-0.8%
GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
(F)0.7% (P)0.1%
6:05am

USD
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
8:30am

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Unemployment Claims
(F)347K (P)360K
9:00am

USD
Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)51.6 (P)52.1
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HPI m/m
(F)0.9% (P)0.7%
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EUR
Consumer Confidence
(F)-22 (P)-22
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New Home Sales
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(F)90B (P)99B
3:30pm

EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
6:45pm

NZD
Trade Balance
(F)468M (P)718M
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JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks