At the moment Yen seems only interested in one direction and that is the weaker ‘route.’ Since last September the ‘mighty dollar’ has taken one course of action against the currency from the rising sun, and that’s the ‘northbound appreciation highway.’ During this period, this one directional outright trade has seen the JPY depreciate just over +15%!
Any sustained and material domestic currency weakness tends to appease the country’s exporters. But what about the ‘debt holder,’ the vast majority of JGB owners, who tend to be other financial institutions or the BoJ itself?
A depreciating Yen has the potential of pushing JGB yields much higher, forcing their owners to be staring down at huge potential unrealized losses. On the other hand, Japanese equity holders and any companies with domestic production plants must be happy.
It seems that the Abe Yen depreciating revolution has yet to stare down “the black spot.” That’s when future losses become materialized!
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