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Elevated Inflation is Limiting the RBI’s Actions

The Reserve Bank of India signaled elevated inflation is limiting room to cut interest rates even as its focus may shift to spurring growth as the government implements an overhaul of economic policies.

“The scope for supportive monetary policy action is constrained,” the Reserve Bank of India said in a report yesterday ahead of its interest-rate decision in Mumbai today. “However, as reform actions get executed, monetary policy could increasingly focus on growth revival.”

The central bank report suggests there are “clear risks” to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s expectations for a front-loading of rate cuts this month, economist Tushar Poddar said in a note yesterday. While the government has vowed to curb the budget gap to damp price pressures, costlier diesel and risks from a trade deficit will limit the central bank to a 25 basis-point rate cut, according to 30 of 35 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Bloomberg

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June
20
Today’s Global
Market Events
12:30am

CHF
SNB Financial Stability Report
2:00am

CHF
Trade Balance
(F)2.45B (P)1.70B
EUR
German PPI m/m
(F)0% (P)-0.2%
 3:00am

EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)47.1 (P)46.4
EUR
French Flash Services PMI
(F)45 (P)44.3
3:30am

CHF
Libor Rate
(F)<0.25% (P)<0.25%
CHF
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHF
SNB Press Conference
EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)49.9 (P)49.4
EUR
German Flash Services PMI
(F)50.1 (P)49.7
4:00am

EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)48.6 (P)48.3
EUR
Flash Services PMI
(F)47.7 (P)47.2
4:30am

GBP
Retail Sales m/m
(F)0.8% (P)-1.3%
Tentative

EUR
Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
(F)N/A (P)4.52/2.5
All Day

EUR
Eurogroup Meetings
6:00am

GBP
CBI Industrial Order Expectations
(F)-15 (P)-20
8:30am

USD
Unemployment Claims
(F)343K (P)334K
9:00am

USD
Flash Manufacturing PMI
(F)52.5 (P)52.3
9:15am

GBP
MPC Member Fisher Speaks
10:00am

EUR
Consumer Confidence
(F)-22 (P)-22
USD
Existing Home Sales
(F)5.01M (P)4.97M
USD
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
(F)-0.6 (P)-5.2
USD
CB Leading Index m/m
(F)0.2% (P)0.6%
USD
Natural Gas Storage
(F)89B (P)95B