Posted on November 14th, 2008 at 3:25 pm by Alfonso Esparza
Two weeks before the biggest shopping season in the US retailers are hurting after Retail Sales dropped by 2.8% in October. Last month sales decreased by 1.3%. It is no coincidence that retailers such as Circuit City declared bankruptcy after consumers stopped visiting their stores because of the dire economic climate.
The Auto sector continues to lead in shrink...
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Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on November 7th, 2008 at 10:14 am by Scott Boyd
US Unemployment Reaches 6.5 Percent
US unemployment rose to 6.5 percent for the month of October up from 6.1 percent the previous month, matching a level not seen since 1994.
Non-Farm Payroll
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures were revised downwards by 179,000 shortly after being released this morning. The corrected NFP shows that 240,000 Non-Farm positions we... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on November 5th, 2008 at 3:53 pm by Alfonso Esparza
This Friday November 7th, the Non Farm Payroll numbers will be announced by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics .
Employment statistics have a significant impact on the US Dollar. There seems to be an expectation that this Friday's numbers will be worse than what analysts forecasted (around -200,000). The ADP Employer Services Report published today showed that US private employers cut 157,000 jobs in October, along with a revision of 26,000 jobs lost in September (up from only 8,000 reported last month).
... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on November 4th, 2008 at 5:25 am by Alfonso Esparza
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut their Official Cash rate by 75 basis points and caught the market by surprise after a 50 bps cut was expected.
Taken from FXPedia:
The Cash Rate is the rate financial institutions charge other financial institutions for overnight loans in the Australian banking system. This is a fundamental trend-setting rate and changes to this rate are reflected in other interest rates including commercial bank rates. The Cash Rate Target is the rate that the government feels is appropriate given the current economic conditions.
...
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Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on October 1st, 2008 at 5:29 pm by Alfonso Esparza
The re-introduced $700B Bailout plan was approved with a couple of additions. The most relevant are: The increase in the amount insured by the FDIC ($250,000 up from $100,000), a Child Tax Benefit Extension and a special assistance to victims of recent Hurricanes.
The main goal of the plan is to jump start lending among Financial Institutions and in exchange get an equity sta... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on October 1st, 2008 at 9:30 am by Alfonso Esparza
The August release of this important employment measure was a loss of -84k jobs. Analysts are forecasting that September's losses could be higher, some hinting at -150 less jobs due to the current uncertainty surrounding the US Economy.
The graph shows how US employment have been hit by the effects of the Housing recession starting all the way back to August of 2007. As the economy cooled and ... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on September 9th, 2008 at 11:32 am by Alfonso Esparza
UPDATE: In a surprise move by the RBNZ the Official Cash Rate was reduced by 50bp to 7.50%
As the highest Interest Rate in the developed world, all eyes will turn to New Zealand on September 10th when the RBNZ will announce if there are any changes to its Monetary Policy. Currently the rate is 8.00%.
The FXEconostats Graph of the New Zealand Official Cash Rate shows that the Central Bank increased the rate on March 8th, 2007 to 7.50% and continued to hike it, until it reached a 8.25% high on July 26th, 2007. The Cash Rate remained at that level for a year, when it was cut by 25bp to 8.00%.
... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on September 3rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm by Alfonso Esparza
The Bank of England started its rate setting meeting today. The current 5.00% rate is seen by some market participants as harmful to the economy of the UK, specially as Housing and consumer numbers have dropped.
Inflation has eased somewhat after commodities retreated across the board but it is still close to a 16 year high (4.4%). Investors are starting to believe the BOE could cut rates to help boost economic growth if inflation concerns allow the Central Bank to reduce borrowing costs.
... Read more »
Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on August 22nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm by Alfonso Esparza
What is correlation? Wikipedia Definition:
In probability theory and statistics, correlation, (often measured as a correlation coefficient), indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables. In general statistical usage, correlation or co-relation refers to the departure of two variables from independence.
Some currency pairs tend to move together in the same direction...
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Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Posted on June 17th, 2008 at 2:39 pm by Alfonso Esparza
With the Global Economies current inflationary worries, the questions is not: If most of the World's Central Banks are going to hike rates to stave of inflation, but rather When are they going to start?
The US Federal Reserve has already strongly hinted that their ease cycle is over. What remains unclear is if the current state of the American Economy is strong enough to start a rate hike cycle. The following graph shows the evolution of the Federal Funds Rate since 2004.
...
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Filed under: Forex Graph Commentary
Dean's FX
